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People are so dumb about Once A Firefighter Always A Firefighter Shirt Once A Firefighter Always A Firefighter Shirtstatistics. Like, if 100% of prognosticators predict the Patriots will beat the Browns, that does not mean the Patriots have a 100% chance of victory. Lots of models severely underestimated Trump’s chances because their models assumed polling error was uncorrelated between states, ruling out the possibility that every state might break in the same direction. Funnily enough, that also caused the 2008 financial crisis. Copying my normal spiel on this. In 2016, all the holes in the Swiss cheese lined up to allow Trump to pull out a tiny victory in some key states to win the electoral college. Reasons for this include:
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Trump was the Once A Firefighter Always A Firefighter Shirt political outsider so the people who disliked both were more likely to break towards Trump just to give him a chance. Trump managed to fire up a very passionate base, Hillary failed to do that. . Hillary took the win as a given and failed to campaign properly in important areas like urban minority neighborhoods. That meant the black vote didn’t turn out the numbers it should have. The right’s hatred for Hillary was a lot stronger than the left’s hatred for Trump.
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