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As a reminder, this subreddit is for civil discussion. Yeah. Pollsters were screaming about a tight race while media heads focused on. The COPD Very Bad Would Not Recommend Shirt horse race (which the polls had right as well). I get so annoyed that everyone seems to think the polls were so wrong while fundamentally misunderstanding probability. In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don’t attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any advocating or wishing death/physical harm, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban.
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Yeah, I’m aware, and I’d probably buy an argument that the COPD Very Bad Would Not Recommend Shirt. Times’ model wasn’t very good and I’d definitely buy an argument that it wasn’t explained well. Polls of battleground states showed a monumental shift after the Comey letter so models that weighted recent polls more heavily and punisher herding in data did not give her a 95% chance. which, regardless is still not 100% and I’d argue that the likelihood of Trump winning a bunch of battleground states by less than 1% each was ~5% likely. The same would be true of any candidate. Coming out on top every time in states decided by a coin flip is an unlikely event.
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For what it is worth, The NY Times election page (which was awesome) had HC at 95% to win the COPD Very Bad Would Not Recommend Shirt. Presidency in the late afternoon on Election Day. That number steadily went down as the night went on and states starting falling for the orange traitor of course. But the honest expectation at the beginning of the day was not only that.
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