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I believe he’s likely to lose. On A Dark Desert Highway Cool Wind In My Hair Shirt, I’m going to canvass and volunteer like he’s going to win. This “unlikely fluke” has happened 40% of the time in the last 5 elections. George W Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016. 8.6% chance in all of US history (5 out of 58 presidential elections the winner of the popular vote did not win the presidency). It’s not a good system. Agreed and down-ticket voting especially at the state and local level is even more important after the census. People don’t understand how polls work. Winning 50.1% of the vote gives you a 100% chance of victory.
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Those two percentages On A Dark Desert Highway Cool Wind In My Hair Shirt measure completely different things. People hear “80% chance of victory” and think the vote is going to be 80/20 when it’s still going to be pretty close to 50/50. FiveThirtyEight had Hillary at 70% chance before Comey pulled his shit, which meant the actual ballots were always going to be pretty close. Not to mention that you are part of the statistics. Polls don’t predict the future, they reflect, among other things your current attitude towards voting. Saying that you don’t have to vote because of polling is like saying that you don’t have to vote because you were quite certain you were going to vote yesterday.
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